Continuous improvement of day trading alerts
We are constantly looking for opportunities to improve the day trading alerts we send, so our subscribers can make more profit. We keep accumulating all kinds of information about each trading opportunity identified. In this article, we’d like to share some results of our research based on statistics of last six months.
Our system identifies about twenty trading opportunities daily. However, in average, it sends just 2-3 trading alerts per day. The system analyses a number of market parameters, selects the opportunities with maximum probability of success, and sends instant unbiased trading alerts to all subscribers. Some of the parameters the system is tracking are: difference with the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and growth potential. Growth potential shows how the stock price grew since the demand zone was formed. Usually, we do not consider opportunities with growth potential below 0.5%. The table below shows a summary of hypothetic trading results over six months between March and August 2016. It demonstrates how number of winning and losing trades depends on the initial parameters of the trade – potential growth and difference with SMA (50 intervals). In this experiment, the gain target was +0.4% and stop loss -0.6%.
SMA | Growth | 0.5-1 | 1-1.2 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.8-2 | 2-2.3 | 2.3-2.6 | 2.6 | >3 | Total |
<-3 | # of trades |
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losses |
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not sold |
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-3 | # of trades |
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wins |
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losses |
| 1 |
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not sold |
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-2.5 | # of trades |
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losses |
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not sold |
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-2 | # of trades |
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losses |
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not sold |
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-1.6 | # of trades | 1 |
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| 1 |
wins | 1 |
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| 1 | |
losses |
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not sold |
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-1.3 | # of trades | 3 | 2 |
| 1 |
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| 7 |
wins | 3 | 1 |
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| 1 |
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| 5 | |
losses |
| 1 |
| 1 |
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| 2 | |
not sold |
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-1 | # of trades | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 |
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| 32 |
wins | 7 |
| 1 | 1 |
| 1 |
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| 10 | |
losses | 18 | 2 | 2 |
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| 22 | |
not sold |
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-0.5 | # of trades | 54 | 6 |
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| 1 |
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| 61 |
wins | 29 | 4 |
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| 1 |
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| 34 | |
losses | 24 | 2 |
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| 26 | |
not sold | 1 |
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| 1 | |
-0.2 | # of trades | 165 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 200 |
wins | 75 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
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| 1 | 1 |
| 90 | |
losses | 77 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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| 96 | |
not sold | 13 | 1 |
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| 14 | |
0.1 | # of trades | 906 | 115 | 54 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1,110 |
wins | 485 | 54 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 586 | |
losses | 330 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
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| 424 | |
not sold | 91 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
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| 100 | |
0.5 | # of trades | 62 | 50 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 175 |
wins | 33 | 31 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 109 | |
losses | 27 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 1 | 61 | |
not sold | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 |
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| 5 | |
0.7 | # of trades | 22 | 10 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 99 |
wins | 17 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 69 | |
losses | 5 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
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| 30 | |
not sold |
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1 | # of trades | 9 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 |
| 21 |
wins | 3 |
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| 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 |
| 10 | |
losses | 6 | 1 |
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| 1 |
| 11 | |
not sold |
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1.2 | # of trades | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
wins | 2 |
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| 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 9 | |
losses | 1 | 2 |
| 1 |
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| 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
not sold |
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1.4 | # of trades |
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| 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
wins |
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| 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
losses |
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| 1 |
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| 1 | 2 | |
not sold |
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1.6 | # of trades |
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| 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | 4 |
wins |
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| 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | |
losses |
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| 2 | 2 | |
not sold |
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1.8 | # of trades |
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| 2 | 3 | 5 |
wins |
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| 2 | 2 | 4 | |
losses |
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| 1 | 1 | |
not sold |
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2 | # of trades |
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| 2 |
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| 1 |
| 2 | 5 |
wins |
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| 1 |
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| 1 |
| 2 | 4 | |
losses |
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| 1 |
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| 1 | |
not sold |
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2.3 | # of trades | 2 |
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| 1 | 3 |
wins |
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| 1 | 1 | |
losses | 2 |
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| 2 | |
not sold |
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>2.6 | # of trades | 1 |
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| 4 | 5 |
wins | 1 |
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| 4 | 5 | |
losses |
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not sold |
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Total | # of trades | 1,253 | 210 | 124 | 61 | 26 | 27 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 1,755 |
wins | 656 | 107 | 76 | 37 | 11 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 945 | |
losses | 490 | 96 | 45 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 690 | |
not sold | 107 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
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| 120 |
The system sends only the alerts from the highlighted area. Now, let’s consider returns generated on each interval. The statistics will look like this:
| 0.55-1 | 1-1.2 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.8-2 | 2-2.3 | 2.3-2.6 | 2.6 | >3 | Total |
<-3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
-3 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
-2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
-2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
-1.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
-1.3 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
-1 | -8.0 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -9.2 |
-0.5 | -2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 |
-0.2 | -16.2 | -3.0 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -21.6 |
0.1 | -4.0 | -12.0 | -0.2 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -20.0 |
0.5 | -3.0 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 7.0 |
0.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.0 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 9.6 |
1 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 |